Today I thought I would treat you to some longer term cycle based analysis which I know some will roll their eyes about. However, one of the books on my resources list is a book by Michael A. Alexander which I read back in 1999. At that time as you can see from the cover below he was predicting poor returns from equities in the next twenty years ahead based on starting valuations and a repetitive "Stock Cycle". The chart to the left is from an update piece by him written last autumn which you can click on to read more if you are interested. I think there is something in these cycles as the market does seem to move between secular bull and bear phases based on either low or high starting valuations. You ignore valuations at your peril which is a bit worrying as valuations are currently looking quite full and the secualr bear market we have been in since 2000 could still have a few years to run.
Meanwhile on Property Cycles there was a good book I read when it first came out in 2005 by Fred Harrison called Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010. It would seem a good time to catch up with this or revisit it as there has been a heated debate recently as to whether we are in a housing bubble or not again in the UK.
There was also a more optimistic article recently which referenced this book and talked about property and economic cycles which you can download here if this is of interest to you.