I wrote recently about Stock and Property Cycles in which I talked about a book called Stock Cycles which details a roughly 17 year stock cycle. Given we are still trying to hit the last 17 year peak seen in the year 2000, based on this we should be looking for an end to the current volatile sideways low return phase in around 2017. Saw an interesting piece called Consensus Building for 2016 Stock Market Bubble, Crash, from Cris Sheridan at Financial Sense. See also from the same site The Coming Market Melt Up and 2106 Recession by Lance Roberts, from which the above graphic is sourced.
From these and some of the other articles they reference it is suggested that after a correction this year we might be able to look forward to one last hurrah and the third and final more manic stage of the bull market in 2015. This is then expected to be followed by a market downturn in 2016 prompted by Central Bank tightening causing a future recession. if any of this comes to pass then it would tie in neatly with the Stock Cycle theory covered in the book with next low coming in perhaps 2017?
It seems that an Mergers and Acquisition boom is also currently helping to keep the market bubbling away, as suggested by Jeremy Grantham at GMO, but am I the only one that finds it a bit spooky that Time Warner is again the subject of a big bid battle much as it was in 1999 / 2000 when it controversially merged with AOL? Any way much like the weather in the UK I guess we should enjoy the good times while they last even if it is all on the back of Central bank liquidity and a further build up in debt!