Monthly Market Timing Indicators.

After a more positive run in the market in May the UK market timing indicators, based on trailing simple moving averages and total return indices, have now all turned positive again.

This continues the more positive trend which was re-established last month, after an 8 month bearish trend, with the main indices turning positive last month. Then the exception was the Small Cap index, which has now joined all the others over 2% above their averages. Meanwhile the US employment data which I track along side these to monitor a turning point in the all important US economy continues to be supportive.

This return to a more positive trend is mostly down to the fact that the sharp fall in the markets last June has now fallen out of the 10 month trailing average. So ahead of the Brexit vote I'm not too sure if I would read that much into it.

Presumably if we get a remain vote then we may get a relief rally to continue and perhaps reinforce the recent more positive trend, although we may have to contend with another US rate rise soon.

Alternatively if the leave camp wins the referendum then all bets are off as we would then venture into an uncertain future and if there is one thing markets hate then it is uncertainty. If we are to believe the Project Fear (oh no sorry) Remain camp then every bad thing is going to happen and things will be considerably worse than before, hmm I guess we'll have to wait and see on that and as ever time will tell.

I'll end by observing that we were told it would be a disaster and we'd be left behind if we didn't join the Euro, when in fact we have moved ahead and for some of those, like the Greeks who joined the Euro, it has ultimately been a disaster and they have been left behind in a depression with bail out after bail out.