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Monthly Market Timing Indicators.

2/6/2016

2 Comments

 
After a more positive run in the market in May the UK market timing indicators, based on trailing simple moving averages and total return indices, have now all turned positive again.

This continues the more positive trend which was re-established last month, after an 8 month bearish trend, with the main indices turning positive last month. Then the exception was the Small Cap index, which has now joined all the others over 2% above their averages. Meanwhile the US employment data which I track along side these to monitor a turning point in the all important US economy continues to be supportive.

This return to a more positive trend is mostly down to the fact that the sharp fall in the markets last June has now fallen out of the 10 month trailing average. So ahead of the Brexit vote I'm not too sure if I would read that much into it.

Presumably if we get a remain vote then we may get a relief rally to continue and perhaps reinforce the recent more positive trend, although we may have to contend with another US rate rise soon.

Alternatively if the leave camp wins the referendum then all bets are off as we would then venture into an uncertain future and if there is one thing markets hate then it is uncertainty. If we are to believe the Project Fear (oh no sorry) Remain camp then every bad thing is going to happen and things will be considerably worse than before, hmm I guess we'll have to wait and see on that and as ever time will tell.

I'll end by observing that we were told it would be a disaster and we'd be left behind if we didn't join the Euro, when in fact we have moved ahead and for some of those, like the Greeks who joined the Euro, it has ultimately been a disaster and they have been left behind in a depression with bail out after bail out.

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2 Comments
Des
2/6/2016 09:45:09 am

Hi Jamie,
Good to read your blog again and thanks for the update on the CIS portfolio. Very interesting to read your views and the views of some of the Stockopedia community's views on Brexit but I can't help but comment on your comparison of the UK and Greece when it comes to joining the Euro. As you well know the Greeks got themselves into a mess because they don't pay their their taxes and their civil service system is a corrupt joke, they massaged the economic numbers to get into Europe but I would hold Europe responsible for not doing their homework and letting them in. Polar opposites to the UK economy.

I will be following with a box of popcorn on the 23rd from Dublin!

Regards and Good luck.

Des

Reply
Jamie link
2/6/2016 12:52:16 pm

Hi Des, thanks for your comment & sorry if I'm going on a bit too much in a Euro-sceptic fashion. While I agree Greece is an extreme example, I think the one size fits all interest rate policy has also caused Portugal, Italy (Ireland), Greece & Spain (PIGS) big problems.
Italy's economy is still below where it was pre-crisis & of course Spain had damaging booms & busts with their housing markets, although it was a global issue & not unique to the EU. I think Ireland has made a decent recovery (I guess you would be better placed to know about that), but the likes of Spain, Greece & Italy (?) are still struggling with horrendous youth unemployment rates and the effects of austerity measures imposed by the EU. Finally I'd say the fact that the Greeks massaged their figures & the EU turned a blind eye and then ignored various other breaches of limits just goes to show how desperate they are to keep their grand plan / gravy train on the rails. Whoops I'm going all Euro-sceptic there again so better leave it there.
Regards & Good Luck to you too.
Jamie

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