Just a brief update on the Monthly timing indicators for the UK markets which I have been producing for a while now, plus a few other things. If you are a new reader or not familiar with these timing indicators and the background to them then please see the archive of articles by clicking here or in the list of categories on the right of the website or at the bottom of the page if you are on a mobile or tablet.
Now you may be worried about this as we saw negative returns from FTSE 100 & FTSE 350 in September, although Mid Cap and Smaller Companies continued to provide positive returns. This trend was probably helped by the continued recovery in the pound from its BREXIT induced collapse which at the time was a bigger benefit to the more international larger companies. These returns leave the various indexes 2.5% to 2.9% above their respective moving averages in the case of the larger focused indices like FTSE 100, 350 & All Share, while the Mid 250 & Small cap indices are 4.5% & 5% above respectively.
Meanwhile the other economic indicators that I follow to enhance the signal from the equity indices are still looking robust, although US Unemployment has ticked up recently and could soon threaten its moving average if that trend is maintained. So it will be important to watch this weeks non farm payrolls on Friday, although the forecasts are for reasonable numbers and an unchanged unemployment rate.
So overall noting too much to worry about on this front, aside from the continued high valuations on Wall Street, although this is not a good indicator for timing the market short term it does suggest that returns going forward from this point are likely to be low. Apart from that it is October, Donald Trump is President of the US & the Federal reserve and maybe one day the Bank of England are talking about raising rates & withdrawing QE. So this bull market could be on borrowed time as well as money so maybe we could even end up with another crash as the 30th Anniversary of the 1987 crash is coming up. If any of you are too young to remember that it is otherwise known as Black Monday.
Talking of crashes and market corrections there was a good interview over at PIWorld (who do some investing & corporate video aimed at Private investors) with my former colleague John Rosier talking about market corrections etc. if that is of interest and you haven't seen it already, then you can watch it below or at the PI World site via the link above.
Otherwise I hope you continue to enjoy the ride in this on going bull market which seems to have been especially kind to small investors in the last year or so. I know as I have seen quite a few fellow investors posting their year to date returns and talking about 20%+ and in some cases 30%+ returns in the year to date. Thus I guess it is not that unique that the Compound income Scores Portfolio was up again last month by 1% and has now produced a total return of 27% year to date too. So as everyone is probably feeling like an investing genius this year I'll not go into the detail as no one will be interested any way. Just don't forget pride comes before a fall and markets are no always this easy.
Finally, as you know I like my music, so I'll leave you with an updated Wall Street Shuffle, which seems appropriate music for markets in recent years. Plus I was saddened to hear about the untimely death of Tom Petty last night, so I also provide one of his classic tracks below which hopefully as investors we won't be doing any time soon - enjoy and happy safe investing.