So as predicted by Frank Sinatra's lyrics last month, markets are back on top after a scorching June both in terms of the weather (eventually) and market returns. This came about as investors moved to discount and celebrate the prospect of a US rate cut in July (now seen at a 90% to 100% probability) and this drove the S&P 500 up to another all time high.
Of course as always seems to be the case, FTSE lagged and failed to regain its highs just yet probably as the BREXIT uncertainty and the Tory party leadership circus continue to roll on. Nevertheless FTSE 100 did manage a total return of +3.97% which was stronger than that from the Mid 250 +2.87% and the Small Cap +0.56%.
The FTSE All which I use as the benchmark for comparing the Compound Income Scores Portfolio (CISP) to produced +3.67%. The CISP lagged that return this month with a +1.96% return as it gave back some of the out performance it achieved in May's swoon. This leaves it up by 18.74% YTD which compares to 12.97% for the FTSE All Share. Since Inception just over 4 years ago the CISP has produced compound total returns of 15.37% per annum which compares to 6.21% from the FTSE All Share and see the graph at the top for how that compares with the Mid Cap and Small Cap indices too. If it can keep that up it will be on course to have doubled in 5 years.
Given the positive returns this month from equity markets the timing indicators for the UK Market that I produce are further into positive territory so suggesting no need to panic and to stay invested even though returns this year seem a bit too good to be true this year. Guess we'll have to wait and see what if anything the G20 meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping brings forth in way of any sort of truce on the Trade War as this article from Reuters suggests it might.
If that happens that it could help to keep the rally going as could a US rate cut assuming that investors still see the glass as being half full and celebrate it rather than being worried about why they are doing it. If neither of those come to pass then I suspect we could see another relapse, but hopefully July will bring your portfolio all that you wish for. Meanwhile I think I'll continue to my bit for the economy by trying to help out some struggling retailers as the following cartoon about a man on his death bed struck a chord with me.