June / Half Year update.

Introduction
We have reached the half way point in the year & perhaps in the bear market as I speculated in my last post. It was apparently one of the worst six months in markets for the last 50 years. We might see another bear market rally in the next few months if all the pessimism has been over done in the short term and as we enter the summer doldrums, but of course it could still get worse before it get better too as we see more rate rises & a potential recession become a reality perhaps.

Forecasting the market though is quite frankly a bit of a mugs game, but for now at least the bear trend seems firmly in tact and spreading further, the headline indices look to have rolled over gently in a top formation, while there could well be worse to come in the next earnings reporting season, but as ever time will tell.

Market timing Indicators
Having said that, the Market timing indicators that I maintain (another mugs game perhaps) have all now turned negative, with this months falls finally dragging the larger headline indices such as FTSE 100, FTSE 350 & FTSE All Share into bear territory below their moving averages. In the past research had found that it was worth ignoring this signal and only selling out when and if other indicators turned negative or indicated a likely recession. So while the ISM indices in the US remain above 50 & US unemployment has not yet turned up this suggests it may still be ok to remain invested for now. 

Nevertheless with recession widely anticipated it seems likely that these indicators will turn negative before too long, by which time the market may well have discounted all that and be going up again as by then, it will be discounting a recovery, once again demonstrating the futility of trying to time the market perhaps? Indeed this is what we saw in the Covid sell off as these indicators turned negative near the lows, but then that was in unusual circumstances and the authorities stepped in with support in double quick time, whereas this time around they have limited flexibility.

Portfolio & Market Returns
June was pretty poor month with the FTSE All Share providing -5.98% total return and  hence -4.57% year to date. Against that the Compound Income Scores portfolio also fell but for the first time this year did actually manage to outperform the index by falling less and providing a total return of -5.59%. So a small glimmer of hope there, but one swallow does not a summer make, as this was largely down to the unexpected bid for EMIS (EMIS) which soared by nearly 50% on the back of it. 

Longer term this leaves the portfolio with -16% returns year to date & now lagging the index YTD and over 1 and 2 years. So quite a lot of damage in the short term, but given the bias it has towards mid, smaller cap & AIM names which currently make up roughly 80% of the portfolio, this is perhaps not so surprising as Mid 250 is -19.4% TR & Small Cap Index -15.1%  TR YTD. While the All AIM index is down by 28% in capital terms this year. So they have all seen much greater falls than the FTSE 100's -1% TR thanks to its higher exposure to more resilient oil and mining names this year. By the same token the portfolio benefitted from that tilt in prior years and thus the longer term track record is still looking good with total returns of 14% per annum since inception in April 2015 versus the 5% or so from the Index.

Over that time period it is interesting to note in the chart at the top that the Mid 250 has now underperformed the All Share Index in total returns terms. That is certainly a turnaround from previous experience, but probably reflects the greater domestic exposure of Mid cap names and possibly a BREXIT effect? Small Caps remain well ahead, but I guess they could still play catch up to the downside perhaps if the bear market continues and broadens out, although there have been some pretty painful losses in some Small cap and Aim names already as seen in the index returns mentioned above and as I'm sure some readers may already be painfully aware. Of course some of the worst pain has been felt in previously excessively exuberant areas such as meme stocks, tech stocks and dare I say Crypto, but then I don't do crypto!

I am however happy to stick with good value quality income stocks which are forecast to increase their dividends. The current Compound Income Portfolio of 29 stocks currently trades on a weighted average year one forecast PE of 10.6x with a net yield of 4.45% assuming they deliver the forecast 10% dividend growth, which should just about keep up with the rampant inflation we are seeing this year. Looking at the income ledger the portfolio has earned  about half of the forecast income for the year at the end of June so seems on track to deliver the expected income, although the running yield is now higher due to the fall in capital values in the first half. 

On a personal note my net worth has held up a little better, being down by 11.5%, although it is notable that this translates to a fall of 16.5% in real terms once you factor in the effects of the current rampant inflation. While the income from my portfolios is up by 3.3% in the half. So I can live with that even if the current inflationary episode is detracting from my efforts to grow my capital and income in real terms this year at least, although it comes after many years when that was the case. 

Monthly Screening
Having minimized turnover recently by giving some stocks where their Scores had slipped the benefit of the doubt, I decide to try and get back with the process and put through a few more trades this month. Having said that I still gave the benefit of the doubt to a few names where  based on the Scores it looked quite marginal and also where they had news flow due in then next month or so.

One example of this was the recruiter Robert Walters (RWA) which has de-rated significantly to historically low levels compared to their history. While in their last update they were still trading well & I'm conscious that a more specialised competitor of theirs S-Three upgraded their full year outlook recently. On that basis I've held onto it as the market seems to have moved to discount a downturn which may not yet have appeared in their business, but I guess it could down the line when and if unemployment turns up in a recession presumably. Having said that it is also possible that they could still do ok form the on going labour shortages and rising wage pressures coming from the inflation problem we have at the moment.

Of those that I did sell one for me was a more straight forward call - B & M European Value (BME) which had a Score of just 42. I say easier because despite their recent update maintaining their Ebitda guidance, I still suspect that they may have a profits warning in them as their sales and margins seem likely to come under pressure as the boom from Covid that they enjoyed seems to be unwinding. On top of that it is often a bad sign when a founder either chooses to or is forced to step back from the business. Superdry (SDRY) and Ted Baker (TED) spring to mind as recent examples of that. We have also seen problems for US retailers having to de-stock, but maybe B & M are a bit smarter with their buying perhaps.

In addition to that looking at their margins & rating versus other retailers like Tesco, JS, Kingfisher & Halfords covering the same kind of categories they are involved in, it seems their margins are out of line and their rating, even though it has come down, still looks rich compared to those competitors unless they can maintain their margin premium, which I have doubts about, as discussed above . To replace that I bought some M. P. Evans (MPE) which I had ducked previously but which was now again a top scoring stock and offering better value than B&M as they benefit from the firmer pricing for their Palm Oil production, although the price of that has come off recently & some government interference, hence the set back in the price presumably. 
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Another sale that I struggled with a bit more was in Ashtead (AHT) where I had top sliced successfully earlier in the year and given the benefit of the doubt to previously ahead of their finals. These were fine and they had a pretty confident outlook statement and suggested further progress this year as their business is now more diversified than it was the last time they saw a recession and less geared too, although still with a fair bit of debt. Thus with the de-rating that had already occurred I was tempted to try and look through that & sweat it out. In the end as they had still seen some downgrades I let the Score of 70 guide me & switched in to a more UK cyclical name which Scores better and offers better value.

That was brick maker Forterra (FORT) which has already demonstrated pricing power this year, has some self help and organic growth investments and where the outlook for demand and supply still seems fine for now as house builders still seem to pumping out houses for now. They also seem to be coping ok with energy prices too, but I guess that could still become a bigger problem in the future perhaps & a big recession could also clobber them down the line too I guess. 

Aside from that I made another less straight forward relative value switch. In this case I decided to take profits in Cerillion (CER) which I had also acquired as a relative value switch out of Dot Digital (DOTD) before it collapsed last year. My thinking here was although it seems to be trading well it has seen some downgrades after the interims as they warned about the possibility of potential timing delays in their lumpy contracts. If that comes to pass I feel it could be vulnerable to a sharp correction given the relatively high 28x rating as we have seen many other highly rated stocks under the cosh this year, which this one seems to have escaped for now given their expected growth. Against that I switched into a former holding Auto Trader (AUTO) which had drifted back recently after decent results & a positive outlook statement . This had left it with a better Score & value than Cerillion with a  sub 20x PE and around twice the yield. Again time will tell if that was wise or not.

Summary & Conclusion
So we have had a very poor first half to the year with very few places for investors to hide as bonds joined in the falls along with equities. So even the traditional 60:40 balanced fund has suffered this year. Only players majoring in oil stocks and commodities or successful traders / macro investors are likely to have seen much in the way of gains this year. While I get the impression most smaller investors have suffered similar or worse falls as their focussed portfolios skewed towards small caps have been hit hard by the developing bear market. 

It remains to be seen if we will see another bear market rally or indeed if we may have seen the worst already. As per my last post it looks like we might have further to fall or another leg down if earnings start to disappoint and a recession is confirmed. That could set us up for the market to bottom at some point in the second half if investors have capitulated and Central Banks led by the US federal reserve stop raising rates or even start cutting again as a recession takes hold. 

Indeed bond markets have staged a rally recently as they have started to try and anticipate that kind of outcome. Of course it remains to be seen if any of that comes to pass or if the Central Banks have to keep on going if inflation refuses to peak out. I think the best I can say is to borrow the phrase from J.P. Morgan I think it was, that prices will fluctuate. Mind how you go, good luck with your investing in current markets and here's to hoping for a better outcome in the second half of 2022 and beyond.