July proved to be a bit more difficult in UK markets compared to the relatively plain sailing that we have seen so far in the recovery since the lows in March. This was probably caused by some signs of the virus making an unwelcome return with a pick up in cases in some locations around the world, thereby perhaps sowing some seeds of doubt about the V-shaped recovery that investors seem to have been anticipating.
Market timing Indicators
With the main indices such as FTSE 100 & FTSE 350 producing negative total returns of -4.2% & -3.7% respectively this has kept them below their trend by just over 9%. While the Smaller and Mid Cap indices produced lower losses this month of around -1% and therefore are both less negative versus their trend than the main indices being around 4% and 8% below their trends. As such these and the on going economic difficulties as a result of the virus would suggest that one should remain cautiously positioned / out of equities if you are trying to time the market and ride trends.
So far since the March lows this has not paid off given the recovery that has been seen since then, but perhaps a resurgence of the virus and as the economic effects become clearer maybe a second sell off could materialise? As ever I guess time will tell on that, but in my experience that is the normal pattern that you see in a bear market, which we still seem to be in here in the UK, if not in Unicorn land.
Compound Income Portfolio.
This has remained fully invested despite the above and therefore benefited thus far from the recovery. Having lagged the market last month after outperforming in the initial recovery the Compound Income Portfolio this month was able to produce a positive total return of +2.6% compared to the -3.6% from the FTSE All Share that I use as a benchmark.
This was helped by the portfolios overweight in Mid & Small Cap areas of the market and four positions which produced double digit positive returns.
Thus the 6.2% out performance this month more than made up for the -3.5% last month. As a result in the year to date the portfolio is now -13% compared to -20.5% from the FTSE All Share. Not too bad for a monthly screened / traded portfolio, although I've seen others who have been more active / aggressive in their trading getting back to positive territory for the year - so hats off to them / you if you are one of them. Since inception in March 2015 the CI Portfolio is +76.2% compared to +8.3% from the index. That equates to 11.2% per annum versus 1.5% per annum from the the FTSE All Share index.
In terms of this months screening there were probably half a dozen or so stocks that were in or close to a Score at which I normally consider their place in the portfolio and of those two that were sufficiently low to seriously consider a sale. Of these I decided to give one quality play the benefit of the doubt as it is still trading reasonably well in the main (apart from one division which is about 20% of the business) & it is still paying its dividends. In addition it also looks oversold on the over bought / over sold indicator that I have on the Scores sheet so it also seemed that now might not be an ideal time to sell it. The one I did decide to sell had a poor trading update recently and is still not paying a dividend & although it is a reasonable quality play, the outlook remains uncertain as to how the effects of the virus & the governments response might hinder or help it.
This was replaced with a better scoring & better value stock that had a much more positive update recently and even reinstated its previously suspended final dividend and announced an interim dividend together with a profits forecast for the full year in the absence of further virus issues. Any way I'll leave it there but subscribers will have been able to see the stocks concerned and the other portfolio holdings in their file in the Portfolio and Transactions tabs yesterday. If you are not a subscriber then please see the Portfolio tab in the menu and the Scores tab in the menu for more details about them and how you can gain access or click the highlighted text above. Finally you can see a table of the full 5 year+ performance history here and this is presented in the graph below at the end of this post.
In the meantime enjoy the rest of what remains of the summer if you can and enjoy a break if you do manage to get away here or oversea. I'm going to be enjoying a staycation in what is traditionally a holiday month & I'm intending on doing my bit for the economy & the hospitality sector by eating out to help out to support my local pubs & restaurants at this difficult time by treating it like a holiday even though most of those & other things have been cancelled by Covid-19 and the current cancel culture. Take care, relax and have fun if you can.