...well it feels like mid winter what with all the snow and cold weather recently and the chill blowing through the stock market this year too. Thus although it still feels like mid winter outside here in the UK, we are already at the end of the first quarter. Thus we have the March update for the Monthly timing indicators which have also cooled decidedly recently too.
Now after this months further decline in markets I can report that all the UK indices are now negative and trading some 2 to 3% below their respective moving averages. So these suggest that a cautious approach is still warranted, but the economic indicators still do not suggest a recession is on the immediate horizon, so to avoid being whipsawed I would suggest continuing to ignore these signals for now. But I will be keeping a close eye on the stats and bond yields, inflation etc. for signs of trouble ahead. Having said that though I note that the FTSE chart has made a death cross this month (when a short term moving average cuts down through a longer term one) which is a negative signal as far as chartist are concerned - so perhaps I should not be too complacent, especially with the Nifty four Fang stocks losing their bite recently & the threat of a Trump trade war rising.
Any way as for the Compound Income Scores portfolio (CISP) the performance here in March also cooled as it ended the month down by 2.2% in total return terms, although this did compare favourably with the FTSE All Share which was down by 2.8% on the same basis. This leaves the CISP down by 5.15% year to date which means it has lost value more slowly than the FTSE All Share this year which is down by 7.14%. Since inception in April 2015 the CISP has produced a total return of 60% compared to 17.2% from the FTSE All Share and has outperformed in 26 out of 36 months or roughly 72% of the time which is not a bad strike rate.
I'll try and do a more in depth review of the performance and some commentary on the stocks and any changes from this months screening on Easter Monday and I hope to be able to make an offer for readers to try the Scores for free, so if you are bored this weekend don't forget to check back then.