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Explaining The Compound Income Scores...

14/2/2015

2 Comments

 
...which were updated again yesterday. These are accessed via a google sheet which will automatically update in your google drive if you have one. If you don't you can read more about it and get 15gb of free storage here. Don't forget you can read more about the Scores and sign up by using the headings at the top of the page and clicking Scores. By way of encouragement I thought I would try uploading a video explaining them in more detail, how you can use them and how to sign up for them. First up I should apologize for the quality of the video now it has been uploaded, the original looked fine on my screen but seems pretty fuzzy on line, especially if you maximize it. 

So if you watch it in the window you might just about be able to see what is going on but hopefully my dulcet tones explaining it will help, or should that be dull sick tones?  Hmm.. perhaps I should trade mark that like Taylor Swift did with "this sick beat".

Talking of Taylor, if my video is too dull and boring for you then I offer you one of her videos to shake things up a bit.
2 Comments
JP
15/2/2015 05:37:07 am

Would be good to see a 5 year expected dividend CAGR metric. Then perhaps a Chowder Rule could be applied.

http://www.suredividend.com/the-chowder-rule-explained

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/728729-chowder/2360292-the-chowder-rule

Reply
JJ IS link
15/2/2015 11:23:59 pm

JP - thanks for your comment and for the links to the Chowder Rule. Not one I follow myself, but seems interesting although somewhat restricting perhaps in the number of candidates it allows thorough?

On 5 year dividend growth forecasts these are hard to come by and as analysts struggle to forecast 1 or 2 years ahead I'm not sure how much use they would be.

Alternatively you could use the historic 5 year figures and current forecasts and make a stab at a trend growth forecast or use analysts long term growth forecast for Companies that are sometimes produced.

Funnily enough I have toyed with the idea of putting a simple sustainable long term growth measure in the sheet with the dividend growth forecasts, perhaps I should. This is classically calculated by taking the payout ratio and multiplying by the ROE see:

http://news.morningstar.com/classroom2/course.asp?docId=3071&page=2

I prefer to look at EV based measures so I am tempted to modify this to use the payout ratio multiplied by the 5 year average ROCE to use a lower more conservative figure which will also reflect the overall financing arrangements and have captured some fluctuations in the underlying profitability. So I will see if I can add that to the sheet. Otherwise see the following article
on wikipedia for a good discussion of sustainable growth rates:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_growth_rate

Cheers and thanks for your interest in my site and taking the time to write your comments.

Reply



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