A busy day for announcements today and catching up from yesterday, Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN) had a trading update which showed the expected outflow of assets. This however was perhaps not as bad as feared and reflects their efforts to diversify into what they describe as solutions (alternative assets and hedge funds etc.) is now 43% of the business. They seem to accept that things will, unsurprisingly, remain tough for them given market volatility, their emerging markets exposure and performance issues, but they did flag cost cutting plans to offset the effects of these. Thus this one may be interesting as a contrarian play if you were bullish on the market recovering in the short term from here as it now trades on around 10x PE with an 8%+ yield, although the Scores tend to favour the likes of Jupiter Asset Management (JUP) & Schroders (SDRC) given their better trading.
Meanwhile yesterday RPS Group (RPS) flagged that it's full year results will be within the range of forecasts despite the big downturn, as expected, in their oil related businesses. They did however take a non cash write down on that side of the business, but more seriously they also saw a write off for bad debts of up to £7m which hit the shares hard yesterday. So again another one that is struggling against difficult market conditions, but again it might be worth a look again once the dust has settled given their efforts to diversify the business via on going acquisitions which is what they have tended to do over the years. Whether they can maintain their record of 15% dividend increases remains to be seen.
Today we had a trading update from Matchtec (MTEC) - which was a bit difficult to interpret because of last years Networkers acquisition and while some of the like for like numbers looked mixed year on year, they did say that they are trading in line with expectations. There also seemed to be an improvement in most lines against h2 last year so it seems like a steady improvement is on track as is the integration of the acquisition and a couple of former Networkers executives are due to leave later in the year as this process completes. They continue to look good value on around 10x with a 4.65% yield, but the shares themselves continue to lack momentum and it doesn't seem like there is enough in this announcement to get them going. So a strong hold, but without a catalyst for a re-rating in the short term continued patience will probably be required.
Paypoint (PAY) - also had a trading update today via a downbeat interim management statement. I say down beat as they are again flagging the effects of the mild winter on energy top ups going through their system, extra costs for their Parcel+ JV and the delay in and lower proceeds from their on line business disposal. So it seems like a year of consolidation for this one in terms of the business with earnings now forecast to be slightly down year on year. This has had a knock on effect on the share price, which continues to languish and is down again this morning on the back of this statement. Thus, despite appearing to be a quality business, they seem to be continuing to de-rate as they seem to be struggling to demonstrate growth in the short term. It may however be getting more interesting as on current forecasts for next year it is coming down to less than 13x (still not bargain basement) but with a growing 5%+ yield, but again patience will be required on this one and probably worth waiting to see if there are more downgrades again after this update.
Renishaw (RSW) - another Compound Income Scores portfolio stock reported half year results. These are also difficult interpret, but this time because of a boom that they experienced in the Far East last year. Consequently headline profits are down sharply, but adjusting for last years boom they say that underlying figures are, in the main, ahead on a like for like basis. The bottom line was that on the outlook they reiterated their profits guidance of £85 to £105m that they had set out back in October last year and that they remain confident about the outlook for this year and the future. I note however, that they left the interim dividend unchanged, although they did this last year before increasing the final. I guess they may do the same this year but forecasts are for only around 1.5% growth in the dividend on the back of earnings falling back so I guess it could also be flat at the full year too.
I have to admit I was pleasantly surprised that the result were OK and the outlook maintained as given their operational gearing and all the talk of economies slowing in China and elsewhere I feared that they might have come out with poor results and reduced guidance. The shares are nevertheless off this morning, having bounced ahead of the announcement as this appears to be another quality stock under going a de-rating which has thus far brought it down to a still not cheap 15 to 17x depending on which year you look at and a not too generous but reasonable yield of 2.7 to 2.9%. So again a quality hold for the longer term I would say, but given the rating and the possibility of an economic slowdown being in the offing, there may ultimately be better buying opportunities for this one along the way.
Finally SSE the energy utility business which is in the news today for finally cutting it's gas prices from March, also announced an IMS. The main point of interest in this was that they confirmed their intention to raise their dividend this year and beyond by at least the rise in RPI, which is nice but may not be that much this year given low inflation. It is quite good though on a starting yield of 6% and although the cover is pretty thin that is probably more acceptable on a utility business.
Phew that's it for today, off to prepare for a podcast with Justin Waite at Sharepickers tomorrow. I will try and put something up about the stock I'll be talking about and a link to the podcast tomorrow afternoon once it goes live, if I have time. Otherwise look out for a month end update on the CIS portfolio and the market timing indicators over the weekend or early next week.
Just a quick note to let you know that the Compound Income Scores (CIS) have been updated today as normal. Talking of Scores we had a 9 Q3 IMS to the end of September from Schroders (SDR) yesterday a stock which features in the Compound Income Scores Portfolio and it currently has a CIS of 84.
These looked pretty good with the Profit before tax and exceptional items up 12 per cent. to £453.2 million (2014: £404.4 million) which as far as I can tell seems to roughly in line with or slightly ahead of full year forecasts. Encouragingly they also saw a 5% rise in Assets under management to £294.8 billion (30 September 2014: £276.2 billion) which was helped by Net inflows £8.3 billion (2014: £7.0 billion). While Michael Dobson the Chief Executive said: "These results reflect the resilience of our diversified business at a time of heightened market volatility."
The voting shares at 3000p currently trade on a fairish looking rating of around 16x with a 3% or so yield. For private investors it is worth bearing in mind, if you are not aware of it, that there area also Non Voting (SDRC) shares available which trade at around 2300p and are therefore trading at a discount to the ordinaries of around 23%. However, since private investors are largely disenfranchised by the nominee system and have holdings which are too small to have any influence, then these would be a good way to get exposure to this one if that is something you wanted to do. By doing this you are getting the same economic exposure and you get the same dividend so the rating is then a much more attractive 12 to 13x with a 3.7% yield.