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Quiet news day today...

2/12/2015

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....as no doubt the news agenda will be dominated by the to bomb or not to bomb Syria debate and vote later today in the UK Parliament. Aside from that we have had a few announcements from stocks I have covered in the past, Matchtec, Greene King and Renewable Energy Generation.


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Fed up with market volatility...

27/8/2015

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and getting next to nothing in interest on your cash savings? Then here is a dull ideal for you to receive a 6%+ yield which is expected to go up in line with inflation while hopefully maintaining the capital value. In brief the fund concerned is called The Renewable Infrastructure Fund (TRIG) the largest such London listed fund which reported interim results today. You can click the highlighted name link to visit their website and learn more about it.

in summary it invests in a portfolio of renewable energy assets such as on shore wind and solar pv farms and the revenues from these pay the dividends. These are expected to grow in line with inflation given the inflation linking built into some of the renewable incentive schemes. This latter point, after this years budget in the UK, highlights one of the operational risks which they highlight as being - the periodic energy yield, the level of future energy prices, and government support for renewable energy.

Therefore it is not without its risks but if they manage to achieve their aims of delivering the real yield plus reinvesting surplus cash flow over and above that to help maintain and potentially increase the asset value, then it could be quite a nice little earner (as Arthur Daley might have said - RIP George Cole) - in a dull green kind of way.

Timing wise doesn't look too bad as you'll pick up the 3.08p dividend announced today and the shares have come back to their issue price post the budget and the recent sell of in the market. This also means they are currently trading close to NAV which is unusual for this type of fund in recent months. It is also unusual for this one as they have been able to issue new stock in the last year thanks to the shares standing at a premium. So there you go a dull idea for you to get a decent real yield and help save the planet too if you don't fancy being a super hero in these markets!
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Turbines today...

9/2/2015

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  ...following on nicely from the engineers on Friday. Firstly in brief we have had half year results from Renewable Energy Generation (WIND). This is one I have written up in the past see here for more details. Basically the results are more of the same from them with more planning approvals and some profits from disposals to the JV partner Black Rock Asset Management. The headlines from the results statement were:

●  Wind farm planning permission awarded for Hallburn, Cumbria (12MW) and resolution to grant permission at Mynydd Portref, Rhondda Cynon Taf (12MW)

●  Sale of the St. Breock and Ramsey II wind farms to BlackRock for net proceeds of £13.8m with a profit of £4.6m recognised to date

●  53MW of consented onshore wind assets now moving to procurement and construction, with a further 124MW of applications awaiting determination in the UK planning system and over 100MW in pre-planning

●  Whitemoor bio-power plant (18MW) commissioned and operating under National Grid's short term operating reserve

●  Group revenues of £5.1m (H1 2013: £5.7m) in line with management expectations following the decommissioning of the original St.Breock windfarm during 2014 to allow for repowering

●  Adjusted EBITDA of £4.2m including disposal profits of £4.6m (H1 2013: £9.6m including disposal profits of £9.4m)

●  Increase of £3.2m in unrestricted cash resources for the six months to £14.6m as at 31 December 2014

The only other point of note was that the interim dividend was unchanged 0.55 pence, although the full year dividend is forecast to be up by 9% to 2.4 pence in total so hopefully they will see fit to increase the final for the year to June 2015 for a 3.8% yield. Otherwise nothing much else to add on this one, other than the fact that it still looks good value versus the price of deals, but the shares continue to be becalmed like a wind turbine on a summer day. Which...


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Click to visit Rolls Royce investor relations site.
...leads nicely onto the other turbine related stock today, Rolls Royce (RR), which has been the opposite of becalmed as it has suffered some turbulence in its share price in the last 12 months with falls from around 1200 pence to under 800 pence in October 2014. This was on the back of a couple of profits warnings and disappointing trading updates that they put out during the year.

The reason I mention it is because I wrote it up toward the end of October at 780 pence as a good quality stock which had been over sold in the market volatility at that time. So as it has recently hit the first of my target prices and close a gap on the chart around 920 pence (see below) it seems like a good time to revisit it as they are due to report results on Friday 13th this week (see Mail write up here). Now given the poor updates in the last year these are not expected to be good, but presumably the market knows that – I guess the key will be what they have to say now about the outlook and how investors take that.

Thus if you did buy into them back in October and are more of a trader than an investor I would be tempted to lock in a profit of around 15% ahead of the results just in case they disappoint again. Alternatively if you are a longer term investor you could hold on in the expectation of them recovering all the way back to 1200 pence again given their longer term quality and visibility of their earnings from the spares business. However I would say they look fairish value on around 14 to 15x earnings with a lowish dividend yield of just over 2.5% and an earnings yield of just under 8%. So in summary as I always say you  pay your money and take your choice but for me this one looks like a trading sell / longer term hold.

Sorry couldn't resist adding another tune today which seems appropriate. Oh no I hear you say so look away now or see the end of this post to listen if you want.


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Straws in the wind...

17/11/2014

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...point to possible value in Renewable Energy Generation (WIND), great ticker, on the back of an announcement by another stock I have written about in the past called The Renewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG).  The latter has announced today that they have acquired an operational UK wind farm with 16 MW generating capacity (the "Earlseat Wind Farm") for consideration of approximately £32 million, subject to certain performance adjustments. 

So this seems to be in line with the rate of 2x per MW of generating capacity that REG (WIND) have been achieving in their recent deals with Black Rock. So what well looking at their website I see they have 62.7 MW operational, 18 MW under construction and 26 MW awaiting construction. But just taking the operational capacity you could get to about £120 million of value versus an enterprise value of around £80 million and that is without attaching any value to the development pipeline or the biomass, solar assets and service contracts etc. with Black Rock.

Mind you this has been the case for a while, so I wouldn't necessarily rush out and buy it but hopefully value will out in the end. Nevertheless it puts me in mind of the song below from Badly Drawn Boy (an under rated artist) which I hope you'll enjoy on the e-mail too as I think I have sorted that issue now.
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Stocks yielding about 5.7%, 6% and 7.5% reporting today.

21/8/2014

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First up we have had results today from Primary Health Properties (PHP) which I wrote up briefly back in March. Not much has changed here since then as they continue to churn out slightly higher dividends which have grown by around 3.5% on average over the last few years and 2.6% in these figures. They achieve this off the back of a portfolio of health related properties in the UK leased principally to GPs, NHS organisations and other associated healthcare users.

The current 12 months of dividends including today's 9.75 pence interim comes in at 19.5 pence and offers a yield of 5.7% based on last nights closing price of 345 pence. Other points to note are that
EPRA net asset value per share increased by 2.7% to 308 pence (31 December 2013: 300 pence) so the shares stand at a premium. It is also worth noting that the dividend is only covered 76% by earnings in these numbers but this was up from 52% last year, but they are aiming to get this to be fully covered. Also worth noting that net debt is quite high at £624.5 million which equates to a loan to value of (LTV) of 63.6%, although around 25% of this is now unsecured after debt refinancing recently.

So overall a decent growing yield from a property portfolio serving health related / government back tenants, albneit not especially cheap against its assets and with quite high levels of debt.

Next up is another stock I mentioned recently - The Renewable Infrastructure Group (TRIG) which has a portfolio of operational wind and solar assets diversified across weather systems, regulatory regimes and power markets. They recently had a C share issue to raise and invest in more assets and the shares have therefore drifted back to 103 pence as a result. With this years suggested full year dividend of 6.08 pence (Source: Company RNS today) they are yielding 5.9% and this would be expected to grow roughly in line with inflation going forward - which is nice. The NAV was 102.3 pence at the June 2014 reporting date so not too much of a premium right now. Not much else to say on this one but you can check out the results if you want to read more about it.

Finally going up the risk and complexity scale we had interim results from Phoenix Group (PHNX) which describes itself as the UK's largest
specialist closed life fund consolidator. It is quite a complicated one to get to grips with but overall it is quite a simple business as they are mostly just running off and generating cash from closed life assurance books of business. It has been quite highly geared but this has now reduced to 35% pro-forma with about £1.5 billion of shareholder debt on the balance sheet and about £1.8 billion in total. They say they on track to generate £500 to £550 million of cash this year
and £2.8 billion between 2014 and 2019 although I believe the latter figures include the £390 million they got for the dispsoal of their IGNIS asset management arm to Standard Life recently.

The dividend was unchanged at 26.7 pence and this was covered 2.7x by reported diluted earnings from continuing operations. This together with last years final of the same amount give a yield of 7.5% at a price of 712 pence this morning.
As they have now got their debt levels down and are talking of getting and maintaining an investment grade credit rating this suggests to me that the dividend should be well underpinned by the cash flow they are expecting over the next few years. It should also allow them to acquire more closed books (at a discount presumably) and or pay out surplus cash to shareholders. On this the Company said:

"
The underlying strength of the business model and the stable and predictable long-term cash generation has enabled us to declare a 2014 interim dividend of 26.7p per share, in line with the 2013 interim dividend. Given the run-off nature of the group's business, the Board believes it is prudent to maintain a stable, sustainable dividend whilst the Group builds its financial flexibility to execute its growth strategy and will keep the dividend under review.

The first half of 2014 has delivered many successes for the Group. The balance sheet has been transformed, our structure has been simplified and our reliance upon bank financing has been reduced. We have created a sound platform for Phoenix to consider potential acquisition opportunities, enabling us to grow the business and strengthen our existing position as the UK's largest specialist consolidator of closed life funds."

So overall a rather complex situation based on what should be a relatively simple and hopefully predictable business of running of closed life books which have been bought at a discount to their future value. Thus if managed properly and if the assumption underlying the life books turn out to be prudent then the cash / profits should flow over the years. Obviously market movements and regulatory changes can upset this outlook. On regulatory changes they detailed some of the financial effect in their statement which you should probably read if you are interested in this one. They summarised the effects by saying the following:

"
The first half of 2014 saw a number of key regulatory changes to the UK life assurance sector. The financial impacts of several of these changes are still uncertain but the Group continues to take actions to prepare for the possible range of outcomes, including possible changes to policyholder decision-making."


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