 ...but a 12 year low against the US dollar, you might want to think about the currency exposure of stocks in your portfolio. Those that have large exposure to Europe will be likely to see translation related downgrades if this strength in Sterling lasts and conversely those with dollar earnings will see a benefit. Also simplistically if they are exporting to Europe or the US from the UK then they will be likely to either become more or less competitive and gain or lose business or perhaps suffer a margin squeeze as they may have to cut prices to stay competitive. However having said that the market is quite good at anticipating and looking through these type of effects, especially as Companies are better these days at highlighting results in constant currencies and often use average rates and some undertake hedging too in any event, so worth bearing that in mind. It is also quite beneficial for the UK markets overall dividend growth as a number of large dividend stocks declare their dividend in US dollars. So when looking at earnings revisions it is also important to discern those which are more driven by fundamental changes in the business rather than just driven by currency fluctuations, although clearly at the margin currency moves can affect the prospects of a business if they are exporting as mentioned above. Any way other than that it is a pretty quiet news day but I see that Dart Group (DTG) a Leisure Airline, Package Holidays and Distribution and Logistics company has had a positive profits surprise this morning which may well have been helped by the € move which I highlighted recently as possibly helping Easyjet (EZJ). I guess there should also be a positive read through from this to TUI who also have merger benefits on top too. Finally talking of travel and holidays with excellent timing I'm driving off to the airport soon to fly with Easyjet to enjoy a relaxing City break in Europe, so no posts next week. So I'll leave you with a couple of classic 70's tunes appropriate to this, au revoir.
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As you may or may not have noticed the US dollar has been quite strong recently and so what you might think. Well earlier in the year there were concerns and companies reporting hits from the strength of Sterling. So now those with dollar earnings should have seen some respite and maybe even some benefit now depending on if they use average or period end rates. Apart from the effects on overseas earners in the UK it also has potentially serious implications for the global economy and some emerging markets in particular. So I thought I would share with you some of the more interesting pieces that I saw on this recently. First up I had the last free version (shame) of Things that make you go hmm... by Grant Williams via Mauldin Economics. If you enjoy it, it does include a sign up option for when the paid for service launches, otherwise see page 6 for the summary and page 25 for the full piece about the dollar. Second was the always entertaining and slightly controversial Market Oracle with his latest views on the $ and "other" things. Click the highlighted links above to read these if you want to and don't forget to open today's Advent Calendar window for some more dodgy music and a bizarre video from my youth, the clue is in the title again today, 2 points if you can name the band.  Click for today's treat? |
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