....no not a remake of a dodgy British comedy but still the message from the Monthly timing indicators for the UK market. If anything these have got even more extreme / bullish since last month was another strong month and a lower figure was dropping off the front.
Consequently FTSE 100 is now some 7.5% above the 10 month moving average, although this is not as extreme as the 9%+ levels it reached in August and September last year which didn't stop the market marching onwards and upwards after a brief wobble in November post the Trump election victory.
Talking of which it seem to me that the markets continue to be taking a rosy view of his likely policies while ignoring or down playing the possible negatives in the short term. It has obviously led to hopes of stronger growth in the US and globally and as such led to a rotation from defensive towards more cyclical companies and from bonds towards equities generally, as higher inflation and interest rates are also seen as a probable outcome of this more positive growth outlook.
I can't help feeling that markets are getting a bit extended and may be even complacent and that some sort of reality check or temporary pause for breathe may be over due, but as ever I guess time will tell on that. For now at least the moving average and economic indicators that I follow are all still giving a green light so maybe the recent trend will continue to be our friend?
Meanwhile the CIS Portfolio has continued its strong start to the year with another 5.8% rise in February for a slightly better level of outperformance to January of +2.9%. This puts it ahead by 5.7% in the year to date and leave the CIS Portfolio up by just over 31% since inception which is some 16.5% ahead of the All share since April 2015.