Britvic (BVIC) - Final Results to 28 September 2014

I wrote this one up along with some other stocks back in the summer when it was 720 pence and more recently after the market sell off when it was trading at 620 pence. At that time I suggested it looked like a reasonable defensive buy. They have had final results today which look fine with

• 2.5% revenue growth, EBIT up 17.6% ahead of their previous guidance bit a little light of consensus.
  
• Earnings in line to slightly ahead at 41.8 pence v 41.6 pence consensus.
• Dividend better than expected 20.9 pence up 13.6% and about 2% ahead of the  20.5 pence consensus forecast.
• Cash flow was better than their previous guidance
  
• This helped to bring Net debt / EBITDA  down from 2.1x to 1.9x

So overall a reasonable set of numbers and a nice increase in the dividend. They continue to invest in the business and expect to launch fruit shoot multi packs in the US in h2 2015. However, they did strike a note of caution in the outlook saying:

"The year has begun slowly, reflecting the increasingly challenging trading conditions. However we are confident of further improving our profitability in 2015, as we bring to market our strong innovation and marketing plans and benefit from the delivery of the cost savings programme."

This plus their guidance for 2015 EBIT in the range of £164m to £173m, underpinned by cost saving initiatives, might I reckon lead to a few small forecast downgrades for 2015. Before any changes at this mornings slightly weaker price of 688 pence they trade on around 15x with a 3.3% yield which makes them look like a hold up here to me. However, if they can recover to their highs of around 760 pence earlier in the year then there could be a further 10% upside or so.