Don't Panic or Panic...

...that is the question as November proved difficult for investors as a new variant of Covid-19 was discovered. This was in addition to concerns about inflation, supply constraints,  governments debt mountains and the Central Banks response to these. Consequently as shown in the table at the start the FTSE All share has produced a total return of -2.2% for the month and 13% for the year to date. 

The Compound Income Scores Portfolio (CISP) outperformed again this month with a smaller negative total return of -1.6% and has delivered +25.3% for the year to date. Since inception in April 2015 the CISP has compounded at just under 15% compared to 5% from the FTSE All Share Index which I use as a benchmark. 

Total returns over various periods and each year for both are shown in the table above, while this performance against the FTSE All Share plus the Mid 250 and Small Cap are shown in the graphs at the end. In addition, while not particularly relevant to this portfolio (as it is only invested in UK stocks) I also had a quick look at how the performance since inception compared with an I-Shares All World Tracker (SSAC). It was pleasing to see that it was also ahead of this with the 250% total return versus the 211% from the All World Index especially as the UK market seems to have performed better recently and remains substantially cheaper than many others, having underperformed badly in recent years.

Largest Positive contributors:
Airtel Africa (AAF) after excellent results late last month led to more upgrades plus further positive news flow this month on tower sales, granting of a banking licence and second closing of another investment round in their mobile payments business which has brought in $500m so far for further investment in their mobile businesses in Africa.
Safestore (SAFE) which responded positively to an excellent Q4 trading update which led to a continuation of their positive earnings estimates trend as occupancy levels and rates charged both increased further.
Jarvis Securities (JIM) bounced back from an oversold position as they announced another increased dividend this month. 

Largest Negative contributors:
Sylvania Platinum (SLP) sold off after their bounce last month after the results late last month led to earnings downgrades and the platinum price sold off in the second half of the month.
Luceco (LUCE) also sold off again after a bounce last month & a trading update late in October.
Barclays (BARC) fell after their CEO was forced to resign and as the Bank of England unexpectedly decided not to raise base rates which might have been positive for banks in the short term if they had.

Monthly Screening
After a fairly active October I only decided on one sale this month as Qinetiq (QQ.) fell into the sell zone with a Score of 67, while a few others I gave the benefit of the doubt to. In the case of Qinetiq on further consideration of their recent update I was a bit spooked by the write off on a large complex contract. I recall they have got into difficulties like this in the past so perhaps it is not as good a quality company as I thought and perhaps has not changed its spots. It does look reasonable value and towards the low end of their trading range, so if you trust the management then you may be OK down here. Nevertheless on that basis I let it go and replaced it with an equally boring industrial stock which subscribers will be able to see the details of in their Scores sheets. See here if you’d like to become a subscriber to get the power of the Compound Income Scores working for you in generating new quality income growth stock ideas for your portfolio.

Summary & Conclusion
A tricky month for investors due to inflation & other concerns was capped off by the possibility of a new Covid strain taking hold, although as yet it is unclear how widespread or dangerous this might become. It is also unclear if current vaccines will work against it. I am encouraged however that virus manufacturers seem confident of coming up with a vaccine for the new variant within 100 days. So either way it doesn’t seem that much to worry about as either it will or won’t be a bad and dangerous variant and if it does there should be another jab along shortly. In addition I thought viruses were supposed to become less dangerous the more they mutate, but I'm not a viroligist so maybe I’m being complacent there? I don’t know and I don’t think anyone else does either but as Corporal Jones in Dad’s Army used to say in Dad’s Army and as Coldplay sang – Don’t panic or if you're more of a Smiths fan then I guess you could Panic. 

The CISP continues to perform well in both an absolute and relative sense this year to date even if it had a negative return in November. Having limited the trading this month I may undertake more trades and rebalance the portfolio a little when we move into next year. 

Seasons greeting to any one who happens to be reading this & I hope you get to have a great Christmas with all your family and loved ones if that proves possible. 

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