Compound Income
  • Blog
  • Scores
    • Scores Presentation
  • Portfolio
    • Table of Returns
  • Resources
    • Check list
  • About
  • Contact



More Reality TV or is it?

24/10/2016

2 Comments

 
 Further to my recent post about The Economic Machine and How it Works and some reality TV content. No if you have finished watching the reality shows this weekend or not as the case may be then I have another recommendation for you.

In this case it was something I was pleased to stumble across on the BBC I-Player this weekend. To be honest given how much the BBC is part of the establishment, I'm surprised they are showing this but good for them. It is a Film by Adam Curtis who previously did the excellent expose on the history of Oil and the Middle East called Bitter Lake. 

This latest documentary follows on well from the Bitter Lake one and is called HyperNormalisation. It continues some of the themes he explored before discussing how the "authorities" try to distort the truth by using disinformation etc. It is quite a long film but is broken into sections so you can leave it and come back to it as the I-Player lets you resume from where you got to. Amongst other things it helps to explain how Syria came to be the mess it is today, the related rise of suicide bombers and takes in Israel. Palestine and Libya along the way.  The list of people featured includes Donald Trump, Larry Fink, President Putin, Ronald Reagan, George Bush, Tony Blair, Colonel Gaddafi & Saddam Hussein - enjoy?




2 Comments

More Straws in the Wind.

20/10/2016

0 Comments

 
Just another quick update on the outlook for the Us economy. Sorry to return to this again but I think this is important as what happens in the US pretty much drives everything else in the investing world.

Just read a very detailed and interesting / worrying piece from the always thoughtful Ambrose Evans Pritchard. Apologies if you have read it already but if not I would urge you to take a look at it here and think about how your portfolio might fare if we do see a US recession next year.
0 Comments

Forewarned is forearmed - more on the economy.

19/10/2016

0 Comments

 
Came across a great post today which I thought I'd share as it helps to explain why we are seeing such a sluggish recovery. It also touches on momentum and trend following strategies which is also relevant given what the timing indicators and the US recession indicator have been doing. The image (click to enlarge) below comes from the post as does
Picture
the one below. If you want to read Debt, here there and everywhere at Value Walk then click here. It also touches on the outlook for returns in the medium to long term - 5 to 10 years - given where valuations are, but acknowledges that these may not be good predictors of returns in the short term. You can also read the authors thoughts on this here.

Any way enjoy - if that's the right word, don't get carried away out there while the trend is your friend for now & keep your tin hat close to hand as I think you might need it soon.
Picture
0 Comments

It's the Economy stupid...

15/10/2016

0 Comments

 
Picture
Most of the commentary this week has been about the US Presidential Race and what Trump may or may not have said and done to women over the years. However, after the timing indicators warned last week about a possible recession ahead in the US - I thought I'd share some things I've seen recently which shed a bit more light on this.

So first up is a piece from the Economist looking at the probability of a recession during the next Presidents first term in office - which hopefully you should be able to read here, although you may have to get rid of the subscription offers first. Following on nicely from that was a piece from Reuters looking at Janet Yellen's High Pressure Policy designed to keep the economy if not boiling, at least simmering away.

Finally if you really want to dive down an economic rabbit hole I also came across recently some interesting stuff from Ray Dalio from the hedge fund outfit  Bridgewater Associates. He has set out his thoughts on How the Economic Machine Works which includes a 305 page document explaining it all.

If that all sound a bit too daunting then there is also a 30 minute video explaining his theories in pretty simple terms, although there are some important messages in the last third or so if you do start watching it and think it is too simplistic. You can also watch the video below which I think might be a better use of your time than watching some fat former politician making a fool of himself on a dancing show or a middle aged woman trying to be a fake rapper - but hey each to their own - take your pick below.

0 Comments

Early US Recession Indicator Triggered.

8/10/2016

1 Comment

 
Picture
Here is a belated update on the UK Monthly Market Timing indicators that regular readers will know I have been following for a while now, even though I'm not generally a fan of trying to time the market. I delayed reporting on these this month as flagged last month these remain substantially above their moving averages which are used as the trigger for a buy or sell decision. The other reason for the delay was because I wanted to wait for the latest US Unemployment data which was reported yesterday.

Before I get into the detail of that here's a brief summary for new readers and some links for further detail. First off the Market Timing Indicators (here's an early post with links to the research papers) are based on total return indices and these are compared to a 10 month simple moving average. The market is then seen as being in a bull trend and you should be buying / long when the index is above its moving average and you should consider selling / shorting or hedging at that stage.

The problem with this simple indicator is that it often gives false signals and can lead to whipsaws as the market can often dip before rallying to give rapid sell and buy signals within a short space of time. This is where the US Unemployment data comes in. I wrote about this earlier this year where another author at Philosophical Economics had used the US unemployment data and compared it to its 12 month moving average and used this as a recession indicator and as an additional trigger for bullish and bearish signals on the timing indicators (See link above). The bottom line was that by using this additional trigger this helped to eliminate most or all of the whipsaws / false signals and keeps one invested for much longer in a bull market and therefore improved the absolute and risk adjusted returns from the market timing strategy. It means you should ignore market sell signals when US Unemployment is below its moving average and only act on them when it is above as a recession is then likely or in progress.

Now comes the bad news as I have to inform you that the US Unemployment data yesterday somewhat surprisingly saw the headline rate tick up to 5% rather than down to 4.8% as some had expected, even though the Non Farm Payroll numbers themselves seemed OK. So assuming this upturn in the US Unemployment rate and break above the moving average is confirmed in coming months then we have had an early warning of a forthcoming US recession. I say early because this indicator does tend to be slightly early, around 3.5 months on average (as shown in the table below), but early is good in this case. While I also found the Chart  (from the Philosophical Economics post) quite compelling too.

Picture
Picture
Summary & Conclusion
The UK Market Timing indicators remain in a bullish positioning with most of the main indices still being around 9% above their moving averages with only the Mid 250 again lagging with a 6% divergence. Thus these are still indicating bullish / invested, although as I observed last month these are looking quite extended compared to the averages. In addition the FTSE itself with its price index is flirting with its longer term All time highs around the 7000 level see chart below and it remains to be seen if we can break out from this 16 to 17 year trading range or if we will see a treble top and another plunge down in the not too distant future.

Meanwhile the equivalent timing data for US Equities and other asset classes also remain above trend & therefore on a buy (see here for an update on this from Doug Short). Meanwhile Unemployment data is flagging a US recession warning and as such, assuming it is confirmed in the months ahead and doesn't itself whipsaw, then the next time the UK and indeed US Market Indicators turn negative then we should probably be prepared to take the signal more seriously - consider yourself on notice - you have been warned and you read it here first.
Picture
1 Comment
<<Previous

    RSS Feed

    Google+

    Archives

    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    August 2019
    June 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014

    Categories

    All
    32Red
    Aberdeen Am
    Admin
    A G Barr
    Alliance Pharma
    Alternative Telecoms
    AMEC
    Amino Technologies
    Amlin
    Anglo Pacific
    Asset Allocation
    Auto Trader Group
    BA Systems
    BATS
    Behavioural Finance
    Bellway
    Berendsen
    BHP Billiton
    Bloomsbury Publishing
    Bodycote
    Books
    Bovis Homes
    BREXIT
    Britvic
    Catlin-group
    Central Asia Metals
    Centrica
    Character Group
    Churchill China
    Cineworld
    City Of London Investment Group
    Clarkson
    Commercial Property
    Compound
    Computacenter
    Connect Group
    Croda
    Currencies
    Demographics
    Diageo
    Diploma
    Directors Dealings
    Dividends
    Easyjet
    Economics
    Emerging Markets
    Emis
    Empiric Student Property
    Etfs
    Fairpoint
    Ferguson
    Ferrexpo
    Finsbury Foods
    Food Retailers
    Forterra
    Games Workshop
    Gateley
    Go Compare
    Goid
    Greene King
    GSK
    Hargreaves Services
    Hays
    Headlam
    Hedge Funds
    Hill & Smith
    House Builders
    Howden
    HSBC
    IG Group
    Imperial Tobacco
    Indivor
    Inflation
    Insurance
    Intermediate Capital
    Interserve
    Investec
    Investment Trusts
    It
    ITV
    James Halstead
    Jarvis Investment Management
    JLT
    Jupiter Fund Management
    KCOM
    Kingfisher
    Legal & General
    Lloyds Bank
    Maintel
    Man Group
    Market Timing Indicator
    Market Valuation
    Marston's
    Matchtec
    Media
    Merlin Entertainment
    Micro Focus
    Mining
    Mitie
    Miton Group
    Moenysupermarket
    Mondi
    Moneysupermaket.com
    Music
    National Grid
    N.Brown
    News
    Next
    Nichols
    Norcros
    Oil
    Page Group
    Paypoint
    Pennon
    Persimmon
    Personal Finance
    Pharmaceuticals
    Phoenix Group
    Photo Me
    Photo-Me
    Plus500
    Podcasts
    Polar Capital
    Politics
    Portfolio
    Portmeirion
    Provident Financial
    PZC
    Qinetiq
    Ramsdens Holdings
    Rank Group
    Reckitt Benckiser
    Renewable Energy
    Renew Holdings
    Renishaw
    Research Papers
    Restaurant Group
    Retailers
    RIO
    RM Group
    Rolls Royce
    RPC
    RPS
    Safestore
    Sage
    Sainsburys
    Savills
    Schroders
    Scores
    SCS Group
    Sell Discipline
    Shareholder Yield
    Share Picks
    Short Interest
    Somero
    Spectris
    Sprue Aegis
    SSE
    Stock Spirits
    S & U Plc
    TalkTalk
    Taptica
    Tax
    Technology
    Telecoms
    Tobacco
    Trading Ideas
    TSB
    TUI
    UK Market Update
    Unilever
    Utilitywise
    Value
    Victrex
    Vodafone
    VP.
    Water Utilities
    Watkins Jones
    WH Smiths
    William Hill
    Wynstay
    XL Media
    XP Power
    Yield
    Zytronic

    googleda4a17cac6d02bb9.html
    File Size: 0 kb
    File Type: html
    Download File

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.
  • Blog
  • Scores
    • Scores Presentation
  • Portfolio
    • Table of Returns
  • Resources
    • Check list
  • About
  • Contact