January Brief

I want my MTV (GYS, AMC) 
That ain't workin' that's the way you do it
Money for nothin' and chicks for free
Now that ain't workin' that's the way you do it
Lemme tell ya them guys ain't dumb
Dire Straits

Performance
I'll keep this brief as I'm not sure that people are terribly interested in this. January was a tricky month for the UK stock market and the World in general as Covid-19 reared its ugly head again. As a result the UK market as measured by the FTSE All Share Index, which I use as a benchmark for the CI Portfolio, returned - 0.81% for the month. 

Against this the CI Portfolio had a positive start to the year with a total return of +1.25% for a 2.06% out performance. As you can see in the chart above this took the total returns back towards the peak they achieved early last year with a doubling in value in the 5 3/4 years since inception. Rather than dwelling on that I'll provide a link here to the full performance table for that period if that is of any interest. 

Monthly Screening
There were a few names that came up this month for consideration for sale based on their Scores having deteriorated. In the end I decided to make no trades for a few specific reasons and in the interest of not over trading too. I've added a Journal tab to the Scores sheet to detail the background to these and provide more in the way of updates on stocks in the portfolio as we go through the year. Hopefully subscribers will find this useful as I have probably been remiss in not providing this sort of information in the past. Any feed back from subscribers welcomed via the contact form on the site here or via my e-mail if you still have it from when you signed up. 

Summary and Conclusion
So a mixed start to the year in terms of our lives and the stock market. While the markets in the US still seem to be riding high and Robin Hood traders and their band of merry men and women seem to be having fun regardless of valuations or earnings at the expense of Hedge funds. I'm sure you have seen plenty of commentary on that so I will not dwell on it other than to say it does all feel a bit like top of the market / bubble type activity. Indeed I have had a few people who don't normally invest or care about it, contact me and ask about it & one was even asking for a friend - normally a bad sign too.

Now while I'm fairly relaxed about this as the UK market seems pretty cheap against its history and in a global context. We are also looking forward to a recovery from the Covid misery as the vaccines roll out and all the positive benefits of BREXIT to come once the teething trouble are over on that too!?

​However, I can't help worrying about the valuations in the US and the bubble like indicators we are seeing currently as highlighted by Jeremy Grantham recently - see video at the end of this piece for more details. While John Hussman continues to make the case for valuations being at extremes in the US in his piece here and as shown in the extracts from that here (continues after charts).
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As we all know when Wall Street sneezes we catch a cold in double quick time too. So I'd suggest enjoy the roller coaster ride again this year & hopefully the Fed and other Central Banks and governments Money for nothin' can keep us on the wild ride for a while longer.